I think this year will be very bad for Indian Wealth Management Business as Indian Markets are so volataile. One way i feel happy that i got out of Indian Market at right time. Looks like the Indian Wealth Management business is now hitting a phase where there will be pared and even Nil bonuses forget the big salary increases. I just hope to get back to India at right time.
In terms of Indian Market as such tts been going up in recent past in volatile markets just to fool people. In my opinion its going to hold on to these level and inch higher for some time so that more people can be attracted for butchering. After that there might be a butchering which no one would have ever expected in their life. Its like a scenario where someone had written that every cycle of bear market makes people learn and so the next cycle is even worse.
I was also thinking something like this, US along with its allies killed Russia last time through Oil prices during Cold war and Russia was successfully decimated. This time they are threatened from China and India, and so they are doing all they can to kill these two emerging economies (too much of threat with Chinese and Indians gathering self confidence). The only tool they have to kill these two economies is oil price. And they are doing this to the fullest possible extent. India is going backrupt because of Oil subsidies and what WTO could not do for subsidies, the Oil price has done. On the other hand China instead of reaping benefits of Olympics is having to weather domestic problem and economic slowdown due to the same high oil prices.
The only twist here is that due to credit crisis in US the situation has got more complicated. I feel the overconfidence of US will be its undoing but it will be really tought for India and China to get over this phase of economic turmoil.
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